Analysis: 'Seismic' Catholic shift to Bush

By Uwe Siemon-Netto
UPI Religious Affairs Editor

President George W. Bush has suddenly acquired a commanding lead among Catholic voters over his Democratic rival, Sen. John Kerry, according to the latest survey of the California-based Barna Research Group.

Barna called this finding a "seismic shift." In May, Kerry led Bush 48-to-43 percent among Catholics. Today, the ratio has changed to 53-to-36 percent in Bush's favor, reports Barna, an organization researching opinions and behaviors of the religious communities in the United States.

"That swing is attributable to an encompassing assessment by many Catholics of the leadership abilities, character, and policy stands of both candidates," pollster George Barna said.

Sen. Kerry is a Roman Catholic, President Bush belongs to the evangelical wing of the United Methodist Church, a mainline Protestant denomination.

"Many of the Catholics now behind Mr. Bush have traditionally voted Democratic but have chosen a different course this time around," Barna said.

Catholics make up almost one-quarter - 23 percent - of U.S. voters.

On the flip side, "notional Christians" - those who have not made a personal commitment to Christ - are more likely to support Kerry. Of this group, consisting chiefly of mainline Protestants, 49 percent told Barna's researchers they would choose Kerry, while 37 percent preferred Bush.

Atheists and agnostics side with the Massachusetts senator at a 2-to-1 ratio. Notional Christians make up 38 percent of the American electorate, atheists and agnostics 5 percent.

Thus, "The Christian vote is crucial for Bush," Barna announced. His survey appears to signal a renewal of the decade-old alliance between conservative Christians, called "Evangelicals and Catholics Together." This alliance lined up against the intrusion of the postmodern Zeitgeist by opposing, for example, abortions.

Not surprisingly, evangelical Christians - approximately 10 percent of the electorate - are Bush's strongest supporters. Ninety percent in this category favor the president, while only 2 percent plan to vote for Kerry.

What is remarkable, however, is the overwhelming support (54-to-36) Bush enjoys among non-evangelical born-again Christians. That group constitutes about two-fifths of the electorate.

Barna uses the generally accepted definition of born-again Christians as those who say their personal commitment to Christ is still important in their lives today. They believe they will go to heaven because they had confessed their sins and accepted Christ as their savior.

These criteria apply to large numbers of Christians across denomination lines.

Barna describes evangelicals as a subgroup of born-again Christians. In addition to their criteria, this group affirms seven tenets: the Bible is accurate in all that it teaches; faith is very important in their lives; they accept a personal responsibility for sharing their Christian beliefs with non-Christians; they believe that Satan exists; they believe salvation is only possible through grace, not works; they are convinced that Christ led a sinless life; God is to evangelicals the all-knowing, all-powerful and perfect deity who created the universe and still rules it.

According to Barna, non-evangelical Christians do not agree on all these points.

"The faith factor looms large," Barna reports. Some examples: Bush enjoys greater support than Kerry among regular Bible readers (42-to-31 percent), weekly worshipers 47-to-26 percent), those who discussed a moral issue with someone during the last seven days (41-34 percent), and those who turned off a television program for ethical reasons during that period (49-to-29 percent).

The latest Barna survey has other intriguing aspects as well. It shows, for example, that the larger a congregation, the more likely it is that its members will go to the polls. This suggests that mega-churches favored primarily, though not exclusively, by younger Americans have become a massive political factor.

The difference is stunning: If a church has fewer than 200 members, only 41 percent are likely to vote. The proportion rises to 53 percent in congregations numbering 200 to 499 adults, and to 61 percent in churches with 500 to 999 members. Once a congregation has passed the 1,000-member mark, 63 percent will participate in elections.

Since the trend in the United States goes in the direction of larger congregations, this is good news for George W. Bush. For it is from the faithful of those giant churches that he can expect the greatest support (65 percent), not from small-church worshipers, of whom only 47 percent favor him.

In presenting his latest findings, Barna cautioned observers to take nothing for granted, for even the faithful can turn out to be politically fickle. Nobody expected the "huge" transitions over the last two months, he said. By the same token, some voters might again switch allegiance as a result of campaign spending, debates "and the continuing saga of forged documents."