Next President Could Get to Reshape High Court

Fri Oct 1,10:30 AM ET Politics - Reuters

By James Vicini

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The winner of the presidential election could reshape the Supreme Court and could have a long-lasting impact on important issues such as abortion, gay marriages and church-state separation.

Political and legal experts said the next president could make several appointments over the next four years and could shift the balance of power on the closely divided court, which generally has been controlled by a 5-4 conservative majority.

Although the Supreme Court has not emerged as a major issue in the campaign, President Bush and his Democratic rival, Sen. John Kerry, have expressed sharply contrasting views on the type of judges they would appoint.

Bush said at the Republican Convention in New York that he supports judges who strictly interpret the law, while Kerry has vowed to appoint judges who "protect our rights and liberties."

"The makeup of the Supreme Court could well be one of the next president's most lasting and far-reaching legacies," said Ralph Neas of the liberal advocacy group People for the American Way Foundation.

The conservative Family Research Council agreed. Its president, Tony Perkins, said the court's future composition was very important, even though it has been overshadowed as a campaign issue by the economy and the government's war on terrorism.

Bush has cited Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas, widely regarded as two of the court's most conservative members, as models for his appointments.

In contrast, Kerry in a recent Time magazine interview cited his Senate vote to confirm Scalia as one of his regrets. Referring to the November election, Kerry said, "The Supreme Court of the United States is at stake."

Although no one knows for sure whether there will be any vacancies over the next four years, legal experts said the odds of a retirement appear to be increasing, given the advancing age of the three oldest justices.

MOST STABILITY SINCE 1823

The last change in the court's composition took place more than 10 years ago with the confirmation of Justice Stephen Breyer. It has been the longest period of stability since 1823.

The experts said the most likely candidates to retire over the next four years would be the oldest justices -- Justice John Paul Stevens, 84; Chief Justice William Rehnquist, who turned 80 on Friday; and Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, 74.

"If and when someone leaves, politics will have a lot to do with it," Washington attorney Tom Goldstein said. Rehnquist and O'Connor would be more likely to leave if Bush wins while Stevens would be more inclined to depart if Kerry wins.

"I would think that all three will be around for a couple of years. They are not anxious to walk away from their job," said Goldstein, a court-watcher who has argued cases before the justices.

Rehnquist, Scalia and Thomas are the court's most conservative members, O'Connor and Justice Anthony Kennedy are more moderate conservatives who often cast the decisive votes.

The court's more liberal faction consists of Justices Stevens, David Souter, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Breyer.

Possible Bush choices for the Supreme Court include federal appeals court judges Michael Luttig and J. Harvie Wilkinson of Virginia, Samuel Alito of New Jersey, Emilio Garza and Edith Jones of Texas and John Roberts in Washington.

Kerry's choices for the Supreme Court could include federal appeals court judges Sonia Sotomayor of New York, Jose Cabranes in Connecticut, Sandra Lynch in Boston and David Tatel and Merrick Garland in Washington.

Duke University law professor Erwin Chemerinsky said the nominees that either Bush or Kerry select could depend on what happens in the November elections in the Senate. Any Supreme Court nominees must be confirmed by the Senate.