Colorado a Key State in Campaign 2004

Tue Sep 14, 1:07 PM ET

By RON FOURNIER, AP Political Writer

AURORA, Colo. - Colorado is on the fringes of the playing field in the presidential campaign, a Republican-leaning state that Democratic Sen. John Kerry has in his sights because of its weak economy and growing Hispanic population.

But a dip in the polls, and other harsh political realities, have forced Kerry to focus his resources on 10 other states, including Florida and four in the Midwest, while tabling plans to put Colorado and a few other GOP bastions into play.

Kerry's advisers say they plan to intensify their bid for Colorado in October, but Democratic strategists outside the campaign say that won't be possible unless he erases President Bush's lead nationally and regains the political advantage in the top 10 states.

The president campaigned here Tuesday as part of his plan to put Colorado, Missouri, Arizona, North Carolina, Arkansas and Louisiana out of contention before Kerry can dial up his campaign in the second-tier battlegrounds, all of them won by Bush four years ago.

Colorado has lost 76,000 jobs since Bush took office, and the unemployment rate has increased from 2.6 percent to 5.1 percent. The Republican-run government has slashed state budgets, including money for social services.

The state's problems include the bursting of the high-tech bubble, a tourism drop and drought. But the Democratic nominee is blaming Bush.

Undeterred, Bush rattled off state and national unemployment figures before a GOP crowd on Tuesday and said, "This economy is strong and we're not turning back."

The war in Iraq is unpopular here, as elsewhere.

Republicans have a huge advantage over Democrats in registered voters, but independents outnumber GOP voters.

Colorado hasn't been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton in 1992. Even then, Clinton needed the help of Ross Perot, who won 23 percent of the vote.

Both the Kerry campaign and the Democratic National Committee left Colorado off their post-Labor Day advertising blitz. Under pressure, the DNC made a nominal ad buy in Missouri and Colorado.

BY THE NUMBERS:

9 — Number of electoral votes, one more than in 2000.

12,000 — Number of troops sent to Iraq last year from Fort Carson, the largest deployment from the Army post near Colorado Springs since World War II. More than 40 Fort Carson soldiers have been killed in Iraq.

14,174 — Number of bankruptcies statewide during first six months of the year, putting Colorado on pace to break last year's nation-leading record.

54 — The number of mountains in Colorado over 14,000 feet.

QUOTABLE:

"We don't like what Bush is doing to the country. We can hardly farm anymore. I don't like Bush's war plan, either." — Bert Davis, who waited three hours to see Kerry during his campaign train tour of southern Colorado.

"By electing George Bush, the economy will improve. Hopefully it will bring more people to Colorado and we can get more jobs." — Jeanette Consor, a Republican from Snowmass.

NOTABLE:

The last Democrat to carry Colorado was Clinton twelve years ago. Republicans blamed Ross Perot for taking votes away from the first President Bush.

WHAT TO WATCH ON ELECTION NIGHT:

Kerry must dominate the heavily populated Front Range, particularly Denver and Boulder, the heart of Colorado's Democratic population. If he falters here, he has no chance of carrying the state.

Attorney General Ken Salazar could draw more Hispanics to the polls. His opponent for the open U.S. Senate seat is Republican Pete Coors, scion of the beer empire.

A ballot proposal would scrap the state's winner-take-all electoral college system and instead split the electoral votes along proportional lines. If it passes, it will affect this year's results.

IN COLORADO FOUR YEARS AGO:

Four years ago, Bush split Colorado's unaffiliated, independent and moderate voters with Democrat Al Gore and won by more than 144,000 votes.

Gore carried 70 percent of the state's Hispanic vote.